The trade war that occurred between major countries, especially between the United States and China, has had a significant impact on international trade. Understanding these impacts is critical for today’s global economic analysis. One of the first impacts of a trade war is an increase in tariffs imposed on traded goods. The United States and China impose high tariffs on each other, which results in an increase in the prices of imported goods. For example, consumer goods originating from China have seen their prices spike, burdening consumers in the US. This encourages customers to look for cheaper alternatives or switch to local products, which in turn affects the domestic industry. The second impact is disruption in global supply chains. Many multinational companies build production networks based on cost and time efficiency. As tariffs rise, companies must reconsider their production and distribution locations. Some companies are starting to move factories out of China to Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which offer lower labor costs and friendlier tariffs. This changed the landscape of international trade significantly. Furthermore, the trade war sparked confusion in the investment market. Uncertainty regarding trade policy creates additional risks for investors, so they may prefer to hold their investments. This affects the flow of capital to countries involved in trade with these two economic giants. Certain sectors, such as technology and agriculture, which are heavily affected by tariff policies, experience high volatility. The complex negotiation process between conflicting parties also impacts broader international trade agreements. As countries rework their policies to protect domestic industries, market struggles can cause rifts in trade organizations such as the WTO. Small countries risk being marginalized in deals dominated by these big powers, potentially hampering global economic growth. From a social perspective, the impact of the trade war is felt at employment levels. In the US, several industries, especially those dependent on raw materials from China, are experiencing layoffs. Conversely, countries that receive investment flows from business relocation may see an increase in employment, although the quality of the jobs is often questionable. In the long-term context, trade wars also encourage countries to explore and strengthen regional trade. For example, several countries in Asia are trying to strengthen their trade relations through agreements such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). This leads to diversification of trading routes, thereby reducing dependence on larger markets. With all these impacts, it is clear that trade wars have far-reaching consequences that reach across national borders and industries. Stakeholders around the world must continue to monitor these developments to anticipate and make strategic economic decisions.
