Month: September 2025

Economic forecast is the process of making predictions about economic variables using time-series models. The goal is to develop a model that incorporates empirical regularities from historical data and a theoretical understanding of the economic processes behind those observations. The results are then used in a wide range of activities including monetary policy setting, state and local budgeting, financial management, and engineering design.

Most forecasts are geared toward predicting quarterly or annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates, the top-level macro number on which businesses and governments base their decisions with respect to investments, hiring, spending, and other important policies that impact aggregate economic activity. Business managers rely on these numbers to make decisions about purchasing equipment and materials, as well as to plan their operating activities. Many companies employ in-house economists to focus on forecasts that are relevant to their specific business. Others rely on academic economists attached to think tanks or private consultants.

A variety of forecasting models have been developed over the years. The most sophisticated use mathematically rigorous econometric models that apply a computation to a series of inputs to generate a prediction for one or more variables. These models may be multivariate or n-variate and can incorporate either linear or nonlinear assumptions. In addition to the model-based methods, there are also a variety of judgmental techniques that rely on the expertise of individual forecasters. These include survey-based forecasts, economic base analysis, shift-share analysis and the Grinold and Kroner model.

State of emergency is a term used by states to indicate that, due to a particular crisis or disaster, the normal functioning of the state is suspended and certain rights are restricted. In practice, state of emergency powers allow governments to put through policies they would not normally be able to. Such emergencies include natural disasters, civil unrest or armed conflict and medical pandemics or epidemics.

Many states have specific statutes that permit the declaration of a state of emergency, or the governor may invoke emergency powers based on the advice of the council. The scope of such statutes varies from state to state, but typically the declaration allows for the activation of the state’s response plans and other authorities, including suspending constitutional rights and imposing curfews.

The use of state of emergency is an essential tool for addressing unexpected crises, enabling governments to react more rapidly and effectively than they would under normal circumstances. These tools also help to address legislative gridlock and the influence of special interests that might otherwise delay or block necessary action.

In New Zealand, the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002 empowers the Government and local-body councils to declare a state of emergency within an area of the country or a region, depending on their needs. A state of emergency usually expires seven days after the date of a declaration unless extended, but may be renewed by the Minister of Civil Defence or a local mayor.

Many people from around the world leave their home countries because they fear persecution, whether it is based on their race, religion, nationality, political opinion or social group. Asylum is a way to find safety and protection in another country while being allowed to work legally, access healthcare and become a permanent resident. However, asylum is not a guarantee of security or a free pass to citizenship.

The right to asylum is rooted in the nonbinding 1951 Refugee Convention, which set forth the definition of a refugee and states that refugees should not be returned to situations where their lives and liberty would be threatened (the principle of non-refoulement). It also allows immediate family members to receive asylum along with the principal applicant.

In the United States, individuals can seek affirmative asylum at a U.S. port of entry or apply for defensive asylum in immigration court after being detained by ICE or other law enforcement agencies. Individuals can also seek more limited forms of protection, such as withholding of removal and protection under the Convention Against Torture.

People seeking asylum often have to wait years before their cases are resolved and may be exposed to financial hardship. In addition to legal costs, they must pay for housing, food, transportation and child care. Depending on their case outcomes, some asylum seekers are eligible for government assistance programs. An ORR office or a public benefits specialist can help determine which services an asylum seeker should apply for.

Unemployment rate is a key economic indicator and is often used to evaluate the health of a nation’s job market and economy. It measures the number of people who are jobless but are actively looking for work as a percentage of the total population in the labor force. However, the unemployment rate can be misleading because it excludes many people who do not wish to work or are unable to find employment. In addition, changes in the unemployment rate can often mask other important economic trends.

For example, the slack in the labor market may be due to frictional unemployment, which results from workers moving between jobs. This can be a normal part of the business cycle and helps prevent inflation, but it can also lead to slower growth. Another factor is the natural rate of unemployment, which is determined by an economy’s institutions and policies, such as strong labor unions or strict labor regulations. The natural rate of unemployment tends to vary across countries because of these differences.

The unemployment rate is most accurately measured through a household survey, but it can also be obtained from administrative records and government surveys. In the US, the government uses several measures of unemployment, ranging from the U-3 to the more inclusive U-6. The U-3 measure counts only people who do not have a job but who are actively searching for one, while the U-6 includes discouraged workers, marginally attached workers and those who want to work but gave up looking for a job.

Daily update is an internal communication tool that fosters alignment, engagement, and trust by keeping employees on the same page about organisational priorities and initiatives. A daily update can take the form of an email, app notification, brief meetings, or a platform like tchop(tm).

When you enable daily updates for your Action, users receive a push notification that they can tap to invoke one of your Action’s intents and engage in a daily update conversation with it. You can personalize the content of that conversation by collecting custom parameters from users when they register for the triggering intent and using those values in your daily update response.

For best results, offer a daily update subscription right after you’ve shown your user the benefit of your Action. Otherwise, your user might be confused about why they’re being prompted to subscribe to the same content every day. Also, be sure to limit your daily update conversation to one or two responses to keep it short and meaningful. Lastly, avoid repeating your daily update subscription prompt mid-conversation or as a suggestion chip when the user exits your Action successfully.

A tech startup is a business that brings new technology-based products or services to the market. These innovative solutions can help solve problems that we didn’t even know existed. They also offer a more efficient way of doing things that improves customer experience.

Creating such a business requires time and resources investment, so it’s important for aspiring entrepreneurs to prepare well ahead of the process. Having an adaptive mindset, setting clear goals, and assembling a team that complements your skills can help you transform your unique vision into a real-world business.

Tech startups are often inspired by modern influences and the latest market trends. Moreover, they focus on utilizing the most cutting-edge technologies to deliver the smartest solutions for their customers. This is why a good way to identify the best tech startup ideas is by keeping an eye on all technological advancements and industry developments.

For example, a tech startup named LIA Aerospace develops propulsion systems for small satellites and spacecrafts. Their patented technology simplifies maneuvering and orbital change for such vehicles. In addition, it can support different fuels and reduce overall system weight.

Other tech startups are focused on delivering specific software products. For instance, the property management software company called Kittl automates online rental applications, tenant screening, maintenance requests, and rent collection. Another tech startup, Parachute Health, helps medical providers digitally ePrescribe durable medical equipment and supplies to patients. Similarly, the AI-powered meeting assistant and conversation intelligence platform called Avoma provides on-call insights, coaching, and conversations for sales teams to shorten their sales cycles.

An acquisition deal is a business transaction in which a company that already owns a product or service purchases a company and takes over its operations. While some companies have internal corporate development teams to look for potential opportunities, most acquisitions are made by larger businesses with existing revenue streams seeking growth opportunities through new product lines or expansion into new geographic markets. Acquisitions are typically more complex than startup ventures and can involve multiple layers of stakeholders including decision-makers, lawyers, accountants, and owners.

A successful acquisition can lead to a boost in revenues and profits and can allow the acquiring company to become a leader in its industry. However, a bad acquisition can have the opposite effect and may cost a lot of money to get back on track.

The first step in structuring an acquisition deal is preparing for due diligence. This involves digging into the target company’s financial records, contracts and legal matters to find out how they operate their business. This can also reveal any hidden liabilities and pitfalls that may impact the transaction.

Once the due diligence process is completed, the next step is the negotiation phase. This is the most crucial part of the acquisition process and should be done with an experienced attorney to ensure that you get a fair deal.

A political scandal occurs when a public figure is accused of illegal, unethical or immoral behavior that undermines trust in the democratic process. Its impact on political behavior, voter turnout and other outcomes can be significant. This article explores the processes that transform private misbehavior into a public scandal, and shows that the transformation is deeply political—that is, it depends on whether politicians are able to cover up their wrongdoing or must choose to expose it in order to maintain their electoral fortunes.

The article compiles research from a range of disciplines, including political science, political psychology and communication science. It highlights five central moderators—candidate characteristics and behaviors, prior attitudes, context, and the media’s coverage of the scandal—that have a profound influence on both the scandal’s impact and its consequences. It also discusses the media’s role as a watchdog for democracy and its tendency to inflate trivial norm transgressions by politicians, which can have negative effects on voters.

The paper uses new data sets to examine how scandals impact presidential, gubernatorial and congressional performance over the past 50 years. It finds that scandals have a greater effect on elected officials when the accusers are members of the same party and that political polarization increases the likelihood that scandals will occur. This is because the more ideologically divided a political party is, the more it will seek to shelter its own politicians from accusations of misconduct and make false allegations against the opposing party.

A news alert is a notification that is sent to you when content changes online. This service from Google monitors your selected keywords and lets you know when new results are published, such as blogs, news articles, or updated scientific research. It is especially useful for businesses, allowing them to keep track of mentions of their names, brands and products in the news.

Breaking news alerts are immediate notifications of significant and urgent events that occur as they unfold. They typically include essential information like the who, what, where, when and why of an event, enabling audiences to grasp the situation quickly and understand how it impacts them. They are often disseminated across multiple platforms including TV, radio, websites and mobile apps, ensuring wide coverage. The effectiveness of breaking news alerts hinges on timeliness; they must be sent out as soon as possible to maintain credibility.

Media alerts, sometimes called media/news advisories, are used to promote events and newsworthy items to the press ahead of time. They are similar to press releases but more specific and tailored to the interests of local reporters. It is important for both to provide the angle that will make the story newsworthy to a reporter. This can be done by putting a local spin on the news, such as highlighting a local student activist or mentioning that a key community leader will be attending an afterschool program.

In addition to providing the newsworthy angle, media/news advisories should also include contact information for one person from your organization that reporters can follow up with. This will help reporters and ensure that they are not overwhelmed with questions.

Peace talks seek to end armed conflict by engaging belligerents in negotiations. Such negotiations are essential to the resolution of most armed conflicts, but they rarely succeed and, even when an agreement is reached, it doesn’t always last.

Various approaches to peace talks have been used throughout history, with the most common being a combination of building trust and listening to grievances. These activities can help parties envision a future where their needs are met. In addition, an effective mediator can amplify the voice of those who have been excluded from negotiations.

However, the effectiveness of peace talks depends on the right timing and a wide range of other factors. Waiting for the “right moment” to start high-level talks can prolong a conflict unnecessarily and lead to mass suffering. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was one such instance.

The success of peace negotiations also depends on whether the parties consider them worthwhile. In this context, a peace treaty can provide legitimacy for the new order that emerges after a war. It can also contribute to the legal framework for the post-conflict period, or jus post bellum.

Interested parties can try to motivate those in conflict to agree to talk, by, for example, offering financial incentives. They can also try to find ways to shorten wars by proposing peace talks early, such as when the initial outbreak of hostilities is first reported. Moreover, they can encourage the participation of women in negotiations. The latter can lead to greater attention to gender-related issues in the deliberations and the text of peace agreements, and broader discussions on the root causes of conflict – including those related to poverty, global inequalities and exploitation.